Karnataka Assembly Election Results- An Analysis

Its almost been one week since the verdict of the Karnataka Assembly Elections have come out. The Saffron forces have come to power south of the Vindhyas, for the first time and that too almost on their own. While the BJP had been coming upfront since quite some time now, this time around they have consolidated their position. The BJP has won 110 seats on its own, with the Congress(I) getting 80 seats and the JD-S reduced to a paltry 28. The Independents, all of them rebels got 6 seats.This verdict also is a time for serious introspection on the part of the secular forces because the rise of the Sangh Brigade in the state has far-reaching implications.

First of all, the people of Karnataka voted for stability and they saw the viable option in the BJP. In fact, the BJP was also able to play on the 'Great Betrayal' lament put forward by them, wherein the JD(S)-with whom they had shared power in the earlier Assembly-had refused to stick to the agreement of transfer of power. Playing on that emotion, the BJP carried forward their lament through out the election campaign. Also, in the Kumaraswamy government, the BJP as an allaince partner had got plump portfolios which they used to good effect. Also, the BJP by projecting Yeddyurappa as the Chief Ministerial candidate was also able to put forth the face of the party before the people of the State. Looking at the verdict, it is serious to note the growth of the BJP in many areas of the State. Taking Bangalore, always seen as a Congress stronghold, the Saffron forces emerged victorious in many metro constituencies taking away many from the Congress. The BJP also managed to retain its hold in Hyderabad Karnataka, Mumbai Karnataka and Central Karnataka-the Hubli-Dharwad region. It also made its presence felt in South Karnataka and maintained its position in Coastal Karnataka. It is also has to be noted that the BJP has expanded at the cost of the JD(S), whereby the latter has lost several seats. Though the traditional Hassan belt of the Gowda family has stood by it thsi time too, the disastrous performance by the JD(S) also has lots to do with the kind of opportunistic alliance it struck with the BJP under Kumaraswamy.

While the communal riots in Mangalore, Bangalore and Hubli happened under the BJP-JD(S) government, that was not the sole reason for the triumph of the BJP in these elections. Rather than aggressive posturing and rhetorical campaign on Hindutva that was seen during the Gujarat polls of 2002, the party also sought to take on the basic issues that also struck a chord with the voter. In fact, they had projected Yeddyurappa as the 'farmers' leader' and tried to ensure that the BJP be largely seen as a 'rural party' in the State.Building up the tempo by marking out this angle, the BJP was able to make good gains. However, the win for the Saffron forces was also helped by the incompeteness of the Congress. The lack of any vigour or meticulosuness in the Congress campaign machinery speaks volumes for such a performance. Typical of the politics of the bourgeiose parties, the dissidence within the ranks of the Congress party. Infighting within the party over ticket distribution even saw their senior leader and former Railway Minister, Jaffer Sharief resign from the party, only to return later after pacifications by the 'High Command'. Such squabbles further disoriented the party, which was biggest secular party. Even the bringing in of S.M.Krishna, who resigned as the governor of Maharashtra to oversee the polls did not help matters. While the Congress(I) did improve its performance from last year winning more seats and retaining its vote share, these efforts could not translate into a performance to beat the BJP. The pro-liberalization measures of the UPA government, breaking the back of the common man, have also played a significant part in these elections. The ever-Spiralling rise in prices has been a single point of attack on the UPA government, that percolated down to the State. Thus, it further damaged the prospects of the Congress(I). The party was thereby, never able to provide an alternative to the BJP.

The Secular consolidation that could have stopped the BJP, was also very weak. The JD(S) under Devegowda and Kumaraswamy through its opportunistic politics and alliance turned themselves into turn-coats. The BJP has in fact won more seats from the JD(S), wherein the constituencies that voted for the latter in 2004 have turned to the former this time around. The loss of several seats for the JD(S) is purely due to such unscruplous politics. In fact, the word Secular suffixed to them has been rendered completely meaningless. The tag of Kingmakers attached to Devegowda had also been made obsolete, in these elections. Tired of its his hip-hop, the mandate was clearly against him.

Having said all this, the ride ahead is also difficult for the BJP. This is very much evident in the ministry of Yeddyurappa that was sworn in. Consisting of 30 members, all the Independents who pledged their support except one, have gained berths as cabinet ministers. Hence, the need to get the simple majority of 113 that forced the BJP to seek their support has become an 'albatross around its neck'. The need now for the secular forces is to do the proper introspection and play the role of an effective as well as vigilant opposition, keeping this government at the toes, thereby raising the voice of the people. With one more year left to the General Elections, this verdict should also be a wake up call for the UPA government at the Centre, to pull up its socks and get its act together. In its pursuit of the Neo-Liberal policies and seeking for a strategic alliance with the imperialist US, the picture of 'RIsing India' put forth has all indications of going the 'Shining India' way of the NDA. The fact that such 'Indias' have been decisively defeated by the people of the country, has repeatedly been forgotten for the sake of convenience.

Post Script: However, despite several such wake up calls in the recent past, it doesn't seem that the UPA has woken up from its deep slumber.

JNUSU Elections

The biggest festival of JNU-the Students' Union elections-formally concluded today in the morning. The one week that passed saw the entire campus having only one breath, that being the polls. The election saw the return of the SFI-AISF alliance to the Presidential post, something which proved elusive in the last two years. Comrade Dhananjay 's victory as the JNUSU President, along with Comrade Jyotsna being elected the Joint Secretary is another strong message that the SFI-AISF combine is definitely the force which has won the mass verdict of the student community. But the victory of the Ultra-Left AISA in the post of Vice-President and General Secretary-Tyler and Sandeep-also needs to be taken with a pinch of salt due to the sheer fact that this organization has always targetted the mainline Left, more than the Right-wing forces. In the posts for the Councillors for the different schools, though the SFI-AISF has maintained the convenorship in the three major schools namely the School of International Studies (where yours Truly has been re-elected as a Councillor), School of Social Sciences and the School of Language, Literature and Cultural Studies, there has been a drop in the number of seats won by the alliance, where the AISA has gained from the last year. While in SIS and SSS, the SFI-AISF won three posts and two posts being tied with the AISA, SLL&CS, saw a completely split mandate with the alliance winning two posts and rest being divided equally between the AISA, ABVP and NSUI.

However, these elections were fought majorly on the plank of 27% OBC Reservation, with the anti-reservation forces under the banner of the Youth For (In)Equality holding one end up. The Science schools in the campus where there was a record 90% polling, even when the overall polling in the university was 65%, the YFE emerged clearly with a lead of more than 250 votes in all the 4 posts of the central panel. This meant that, the SIS, SSS and SLL&CS were critical in pegging back the trail and ensuring leads for the pro-reservation forces. The rise of the YFE needs to be viewed with concern too, due to the fact that even in the major schools there were some 'disturbing trends'. The casteist forces who wanted to make the socially progressive campus of JNU like AIIMS where the students coming from the deprieved sections are ghettoized and treated like inferior mortals have been handed down a clear defeat by the democratic and progressive sections of the campus. This message emnating from JNU is a clear and strong signal to the casteist forces that their politics-of casteism-has been given a befitting reply by the JNU students. The YFE which is a elite formation, that has no concern for the students coming from the depreived backgrounds, had always tried to wear a mask of being pro-poor. But they have been utterly unmasked by the students with a clear clarion call that these forces need to now pack up their bags and leave the campus or else they would be thrown out by the progressive students.

This election also sends a clear message to the elitist bourgeois media, which had always fanned vast support for these forces combined with the corporate world. The Shiv Kheras and the Navjot Singh Sidhus also need to watch their steps while dealing with JNU where the students do not tolerate such unhealthy forces. The national media, particularly the electronic section had given great credence to these forces, even equating them , with the movie Rang De Basanti. The media which till date has not concentrated on any of the student movements in all over the country in general and in JNU in particular, has suddenly found the issue of reservation as something dangerous and against the peoples' interests. The JNU students movement, especially under the banner of the SFI-AISF for the construction of new hostels, institutionalizing GSCASH and Equal Opportunity Office, ensuring students' representation in the Academic Council and the Board of Studies and the latest struggle for ensuring financial assistance to all needy students have always been left out of the pages and visuals of the mainline media. The students' movement here ,which has also seen the SFI-AISF led JNUSUs waging relentless struggles against fee hikes, saffronization, commercialization and privatization; this is infact lined to the broader struggles waged outside this campus by the Left forces as well as other like-minded democratic and progresive sections. This mandate reaffirms that commitment to link the struggles in the campus with the struggles outside.

At the end of the day, when all the dust and din settles, the elections in JNU (which is conducted by the students themselves)-with JNU being the only university in Asia to do so-are a clear reflection of the fact that rather than the glamour and poshness of people, the issues of the students get a voice. The Election Committee of JNU needs to be congratulated for ensuring a peaceful, incident-free election. This JNU model reflects upon the committees like the one under Lyngdoh, which are out to place curbs on the democratization of the campuses across the country. It is only appropriate to say that "students' unity long live"!!